Kevin Hogan

International Speaker

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Real Success Secrets, Pt. 2 – Kevin Hogan 4.76*

Success is making a lot of Calculated Life Bets, and riding the Waves of Momentum

The person who makes the smartest Life Bets will win in life more than the vast majority of the people.

Today? 3 secrets of success.

  1. Life Bets
  2. Waves of Momentum
  3. Concentrated Focus

In order to make smart Life Bets you have to collect information, and gather evidence of what causes people LIKE YOU to be successful. NOT people like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Jeff  Bezos, but people LIKE YOU.

I like winning and do a lot to insure that I will win. Not today or yesterday but over time. To win over time, you’ll LOSE a lot of your Life Bets. And you’ll need some luck and a lot of skill to win to the point of success.

Here’s a secret no one has ever told you.

You could skip this but even if you don’t understand the game of football that doesn’t matter. You’ll get the concept and be able to apply it to EVERYTHING in life.

Football (and almost all sports in general) as a metaphor for your life. Watch:

One of the best simple predictors of which team will win the Super Bowl a few weeks ago was to simply LOOK at the average points scored and surrendered (by Tampa and KC) in the previous games against all opponents during the season.

Now read as slowly as you need to get this because you’re about to see your life differently.

It’s the Super Bowl in the NFL season and The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing the Kansas City Chiefs.

My emotions get a hold of my brain and say “man this is going to be fun to watch Tom Brady at 43 play Patrick Mahomes 25…” And then of course you stop because your emotions SUCK at helping you win in life. CONTROLLING your EMOTIONS helps you WIN in LIFE.

In the prior 16 “regular season” games Tampa Bay SCORED 137 more points than they had surrendered. The KC Chiefs had SCORED 111 points more than they had surrendered.

Compare those two numbers and you have 26 points difference between the two teams over a 16 game season. That’s NOT a lot, but it’s almost 2 points per game average. AND remember I’m not betting on a team to “win” the game. I don’t care who wins. I care about how much they win or lose by.

In the Simplest World of Prediction, Tampa  has what’s called a home field advantage (another HUGE factor in success in ANYTHING) in the Super Bowl (The game is actually being played IN Tampa Bay). That home field advantage matters…and it matters a lot. It is worth about 2 1/2 points!

Now it becomes easier.

Using our simple super fast look at the game Tampa should be favored by (2 + 2 1/2)  4 1/2 points over KC in the Super Bowl.

But they aren’t and that means we have an opportunity to WIN IN LIFE TODAY.

Instead The Chiefs are favored to win by 3 1/2.  And almost EVERYONE is going to bet on the Chiefs in Super Bowl 2021. They are FUN. They make football fun and they are a great team!

And none of THAT matters either. The Chiefs aren’t favored by 3 1/2  because the handicappers think they are 3 1/2 points better than Tampa but because they KNOW that HUMANS will come and bet a TON of money on the Chiefs in spite of the fact that Tampa Bay is better. Why? Because, like Tampa, K.C. IS  a great team and a blast to watch.

How does the hotel make money? Simple.

You bet $110 and if you win your bet the hotel gives you $100, regardless of which side you bet on. That’s where the casino makes their profit. It’s very simple. I’ve competed against the smartest forecasters on the planet for a decade. I’ve beaten 90% of the crowd, but I’ve never been #1 (though I came very close in 2018).  Being the Sole Survivor, the single winner requires luck and momentum.

It means Tampa Bay is 4 1/2 points better than K.C. (today in this specific place) AND if you give Tampa an extra 3 1/2 imaginary points and KC wins by 3, YOU win the bet if you bet on Tampa. If you had bet on the fun to watch Chiefs they have to win by 4 or more for you to win your bet.

This means you have a BIG advantage if you bet on Tampa Bay. They are already better by 2, and then they got LUCKY because they played in Tampa Bay (2 1/2 points) AND the casino is giving you an EXTRA 3 1/2 points, meaning Tampa doesn’t even have to win, they simply have to lose by 3 or fewer points OR win…for me to win.

This is so much like real life, it’s scary, and I will explain.

It’s  important to know that in performance, achievement, life… when everyone thinks something will go north, normally means it’s worth betting it will go south. CROWDS are not SMART. There is no “wisdom” in demonstrations, riots or when people collectively think together at the office or almost anywhere else. There is no collective wisdom in groups. Quite the opposite. Sometimes the crowd is “right” but when you bet against the crowd you do better long run.

In the Super Bowl, the point differential between Vegas and what should happen based on 3 months of playing history is that it would be ridiculous to bet on Kansas City. You have no choice but to bet on Tampa Bay.  4 1/2 + 3 1/2 = 8 points. In betting on the NFL that means that a bet on Tampa Bay will win 68% of the time,  just based on on this one set of stats. (This math is a bit more complex, you can trust me for now. I’ll make a video on betting and life soon, I promise) I track lots of factors in life but when ANY set of stats tells you that your bet should make you money 68% of the time, you’d be an idiot to not make the bet.

The rest was history of course. Tampa Bay crushed the Kansas City Chiefs.  That doesn’t make ME smart. It means I started where I always start when I look at predicting anything. I start with the SIMPLEST FACTORS that predictably cause success.  Then I look at a manageable number of factors which matter most in who or what team will win and by how much.

Get good at predicting and you can’t help but succeed in life.

I bet the Bucs and watched the 43 year old play brilliantly. I won. I had a blast. BUT ALWAYS Remember that is partly luck and partly skill because one set of simple factors doesn’t predict if YOU will win 68% of the time. Ever. 

Stop thinking about winning or losing, and think about Life Bets, because almost every important action you take in life is a Life Bet. Each decision, each action, each choice, each attempt. The more you make the more likely you are to GAIN MOMENTUM.

And this is where our story starts moving much faster…

Momentum Kevin Hogan

I had put the final touches on our 10 week success course right before Christmas 2020.

The interactive time investment with video and your work with me as your personal consultant is approximately 60 hours over 3 months.

This article requires about 19 minutes for you to learn and provides a nice introduction to some skills you can use beginning today.

Perhaps the least understood elements of success after Life Bets are those of Concentrated Focus and Waves of Momentum.

Concentrated focus is the FOUR DIMENSIONAL act of placing your attention on a person or project at all levels, through time, and with the full support and drive of those around you.

Success happens through time and riding waves of momentum.

What does the crowd say about doing a little each day?

Turn the page and find out…

The wisdom of the crowd says you can do a little every day and be successful. They are wrong.  The idea sells tickets and the woman teaching that is lying to you.

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Author of The Psychology of Persuasion, Irresistible Attraction, and The Science of Influence, Dr. Kevin Hogan is trusted by organizations, both large and small, to help them help their people reach their personal peak performance and maximize influence in selling and marketing. Kevin is an internationally admired keynote speaker and corporate thought leader. In Coffee with Kevin Hogan, he shares his research, observations, and how you can apply them in your life – both in business and at home.

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