Maybe it will all be over in a few weeks. The President could be right.
Of course The Curve Flatteners could be right. The lock-downs could allow for hospital bed availability, and the current situation could then go on for months or more without stressing the hospital world too badly.
No one really knows of course because this flu, while not absolutely unique, is certainly impressive in many ways and with all the data collection that has taken place, we still see statistics being manipulated to portray stories that simply aren’t true. It’s with this introduction that NO ONE really knows what will happen…that I share a few thoughts with you that should help you CONTROL YOUR WORLD while governments try to control yours for you.
People getting the flu and living or dying is part of the equation of “life” on planet earth. If one doesn’t like the risks they can freely choose to eliminate the risk for themselves. The flu doesn’t concern me. I don’t like it. I’ve had nasty flu’s. So have you. And people die from the flu. Lots of people…every year. And no one ever shut down the world for anything similar.
One man spits on a Chinese man and taunts him with the responsibility of the flu being in the U.S.
Aside from being both disgusting and embarrassing, it is a symptom.
I travel around the world and it probably would bug me if people spat on me for any of dozens of justifications. I’ve certainly had people blame me in social conversations about politics over the last two decades. The last three Presidents have been lightning rods (Bush, Obama, Trump) for American travelers. It’s an interesting bias. The President of the country in which you live is identified by others as “your choice” or “your fault” or “your cause” of a host of worldwide problems.
As extremism expands across the globe, so does the decision making that goes along with it.
After all you are in the midst of watching the U.S. spend TRILLIONS of dollars it will borrow from your children… on the flu. A bad flu, to be sure, but it is the flu.
And obviously the situation is not likely to be replicated in the near future because you can only pull out so many credit cards for both good and bad expenditures before you are over limit.
The Zombie Apocalypse
Zombie Zero becomes a zombie by infection from an airborne rabies virus.
90% of the people ZZ comes into contact with become zombies.
ZZ and all the rest to follow can survive 20 days.
6 weeks after ZZ was infected the population of almost all humans on the planet is erased.
On Day 100 there are just under 200 humans left alive (but not you) out of the original 7 billion residents of planet earth.
This was all part of a published research study at the University of Leicester about 3 years ago. (I’m serious.)
In follow up work, The Journal of Physics reported that by giving people the ability to fight back, flee and make babies insured the survival of the human race. (273 people remained alive at the end of 3 years, the zombies all had “died,” and eventually the earth was repopulated.)
It has been impossible to not think about it the last month or so.
So WHY are people doing research on the zombie apocalypse and being published by The Journal of Physics in 2017?
The idea of infected populations taking their toll on humanity has been in the collective consciousness for millenia.
What’s sad is they genuinely FELT that they (the citizens and governments) were doing the right thing in the U.S., Italy, China. Three places that did three different things and people with no background in statistics are FAST to point out, LOOK WHAT THEY did and they believe based on samplings that some approaches work and some don’t. That’s lousy science. There are so many apples, oranges and bananas in this worldwide mess that it’s almost IMPOSSIBLE to say Italy did ANYTHING wrong and that CHINA did everything right.
What that means in English is just because someone or some country gets a positive or negative result doesn’t mean they made a good decision!
It’s more complicated than that! Just because a good result was attained doesn’t mean that experts did something RIGHT!
That’s the nature of science, decision making, statistics. Lots of times good results mean that good stuff was done. But more often than you might guess someone got a good result that couldn’t be replicated by you with an instruction book and a team of experts. That’s how life REALLY WORKS.
I know it doesn’t seem sensible but it’s 100% correct.
Today I want you to let the professionals in epidemiology do their job. Let them do the best they can. Appreciate the doc’s and nurses. But don’t think for a second that people in medicine are great in math, because they are NOT. Even in simple diagnostics like breast cancer research shows that most doc’s get what it all means wrong and don’t have the correct diagnostic that they are sharing with their patients. The number of variables in something like a CV worldwide mess are far bigger than what anyone is talking about online or on TV.
The GOOD NEWS is that I suspect the CV is NOT going to give us a worst case scenario.
The BAD NEWS is that I DO think the PANIC and FEAR and “Strategies” to lengthen the periods of coping (the flatten the curve strategy) with CV will backfire…and yet, I’m not suggesting the physical response is “wrong.” It’s a logical choice. Keep the hospitals full but not overstressed for as long as possible. It’s just there is a MUCH, MUCH BIGGER problem that needs to be addressed before it makes the CV look like nothing…
In other words, short term things have gone very well considering the billing of the CV. Compared to hosts of other problems in and out of the health arena (war, famine and starvation, other medical problems that could have had millions of lives saved with trillions of dollars…) things have gone far better than could have been guessed. Implemented strategies might have saved or possibly will save many thousands of lives. Never discount that.
Let’s move past March 2019 because people worry about TODAY which certainly bears weight in life, but they kind of skip the rest of the year, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2029 not to mention a dozen other years, well this is where MOST geo-social disasters happen in life. And when they blossom, you no longer have A PROBLEM, you have a SERIES of disasters.
What’s happening in your city/state/province/country TODAY is just a harbinger of the proverbial things to come. It’s small and limited compared to what is likely to come next.
Your leaders are about to cut you a check for $1000 and companies big fat checks all with money created out of thin air. This money will come from taxpayer funds that are collected from taxes, except there is no real money to write the checks especially when you consider millions are out of work and taxes coming into the government have been drying up quickly.
It’s fascinating to consider.
But there’s more just in this aspect. How many checks will be written and for how long? Who will be deemed as the “too big to fail,” segment in this crisis. 12 years ago it was the banks. This time? We’ll see.
Today I see that the Euro and the Dollar are edging closer to parity. The yield on the 10 year bond is under 1%. Really. 1%.
And worldwide people are buying the dollar over gold and pretty much over every other currency. More than fascinating.
If aliens from Alpha Centauri had invaded, it would all be a lot simpler…
About a month ago it was obvious that the fear of the panic of the flu was going to be a much, much bigger problem than the flu itself. But I confess I underestimated the panic factor. All across the world chaos has turned to lockdowns, lockins, quarantines, military in the streets (never a good idea), schools closing, businesses closing. Lives stopping and people in some places being locked up in their homes. We live in far more than interesting times, true?
The psychological damage has been overwhelming. Everyday more calls, emails, messages come in. “Kev …what do you think?” And then they let go of the fear. “What if I get it?” “I can’t go anywhere….social distancing.
Today I got an email from a friend who said that a friend of his talked to a local police officer here in Minnesota who said that people were frothing at the mouth with pink stuff and that people were dying everywhere in Minnesota. Sounds terrible but it’s just sadly bizarre. The mind plays interesting tricks on all of us. Fake News, even if it is believed to be true is something that is later believed to be true. Uh boy…. (One person, to date, in Minnesota has died from CV. A HUNDRED have died from the other non-important flu.)
Another call came in from a friend in a country far from Minnesota. “Our country is ordering body bags to accommodate the dead.” What do you say to THAT?
Apparently many had died from CV just yesterday. I checked with their up the minute government data. Zero. No one had died from CV. One death to date in their tiny country.
Stories mixed with truth and fantasy historically have replaced fact and reality, assuming the facts are correct.
And yet all of this is still just a simple precursor to the problems that are likely to come in the next chapter of the big story.
People must begin to look at the psycho-social ramifications of EVERYTHING that is happening because if things don’t CHANGE (not SHIFT, but CHANGE) soon then there will be MASSIVE challenges. Even a Zombie Apocalypse is pretty benign compared to WORLDWIDE CROWD BEHAVIOR.
Walk with me…
Here’s the first thing I want you to consider: If you do get the flu (corona or far more likely the good old fashioned crappy flu) you will be sick for two to three weeks. It will suck then you can get back to work…or you can work while you have during the flu like most people throughout history have and you’ll be fine. It’s not easy to go from being healthy to becoming one of the statistics, at least to date, it is a mathematical rarity.
Second I’ve seen NOTHING that shows you can’t have THE FLU and CORONA at the same time.
Have you considered that? Everyone is talking about comorbidity and ignoring the fact that the flu season is here but ending and MILLIONS have had the flu, at least here in the U.S. How many of them also had C.V.? I have no idea. Neither does anyone else apparently. I bet that combination could be fatal. What do YOU think?
Ask a person who knows more about this than I do but I suspect a significant number of corona deaths you hear about are actually C + F (Corona + Flu) or C + P (Corona + Pre-Existing Challenge (like Cancer, acute heart issues, overdose, suicidal ideation)
The processes of reporting of corona complicate EVERYTHING in understanding just what’s happening.
Let’s be clear. It’s a weird flu. It apparently (does anyone KNOW?) originated from an animal to human transmission which is not standard flu fare. Apparently pretty much anyone COULD get this version of the flu. I’m told that apparently immunity doesn’t ward of Corona. I have no idea whether I believe the story. Makes no sense to me. I don’t know what to make of it. To be direct: It sounds like garbage to me, but it COULD be correct and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was because there are a hundred ways this could have had it’s genesis. The truth is NO ONE KNOWS. They are giving you best guesses, just as I am here. I am to believe that a bat or maybe a bird or SOME animal, perhaps bit a human and that started this. OK, let’s go there, NOW, the next necessary step is that I am to believe that this doesn’t happen THOUSANDS of times a day all around the world, making this a unique “random” situation. Sure….
What do you bet this happens a few hundred times per day on this planet? I’d bet a lot.
OK fine. Let’s go there… and we’ll come back later…
I’ve traveled with and have been in close contact with tens of thousands of people in the last month. Just going to the Louvre in Paris meant you were…well EVERYONE should have whatever was or wasn’t there. I’ve put on 30,000 miles since the virus started. I hate flying in the germ factories, er, airplanes. My 30,000 miles while a LOT for a few months, are NOTHING compared to international flight crews. And by and large they are all fine. A testament to immune systems…except hypothetically immunities to this specific CV is not very helpful…except very few people actually die from this CV…. at least to date. Sigh…
But IF IMMUNITY doesn’t help ward off the potential damage Corona) then why are people getting “well” (assuming they were sick)? I need someone to explain this to me…
Here’s the thing: My BELIEF (which is no more a scientific fact than ANY belief I have) is that not everyone that gets corona will die. Already the vast majority of resolution to health or death is dramatic. Apparently < 5% of people who end up with this virus/flu in their system will die. In other words, we don’t KNOW a real percentage yet but we can pretty fairly say it is NOT > 5%.
So what’s up?
95++% ARE not going to die from Corona…. apparently. (Again we can’t know if there really are unique properties to this flu vs. all others that might creep up on those who got better, but later.)
Maybe the reason is not that this “almost everyone” group is immune. Maybe there is a mechanism of discharge that I’ve never heard of. But whatever it is, MOST people that get this CV are NOT going to die from CV. (I’ll give you much scarier possible outcomes shortly…)
That does NOT mean that a lot of these people are not going to be sick as hell and FEEL LIKE they will die. Remember the last time you had a bad case of the flu? I mean REAL BAD. How about severe bronchitis or pneumonia? That sh*# is NASTY and I DOUBT that it’s must less potent as far as mortality than CV. But I could be wrong… and I doubt that I’m wrong on this one.
IF we are to believe the data being released, kids under 10 don’t die from this thing (or not very often). I’m looking for an explanation for that because IF this is true, then why are SCHOOLS CLOSED and WHY are all these kids locked up at home? Perhaps the boys and girls are “carriers.” Does anyone know that? (I’ve heard it A LOT, but…How would they know that?) I mean is there data that shows that to be true? Perhaps I missed it and I’m dead serious because it appears that kids are at the moment the SAFEST people on the planet (and thank god for that).
And if we are to believe the data, if you’re over 70 or 80, yeah you still will be alive to pay your taxes, but if you get CV things are riskier. (Not the taxes, being able to come up with the money to pay the taxes.)
Governments have really mucked things up in one of the most bizarre worldwide efforts to not look bad that we’ve ever witnessed. In just a few weeks and then months and then going forward…for a couple decades, you’ll have more cases of PTSD, anxiety, depression, suicide, than ever. You’ll have a TERRIFIED planet. And fear never brings good results. You explain from the beginning, that the bigger enemy is fear and panic and work your way back to strategy from there. You go the road that we’ve taken on the planet and you get a long term mess.
Xenophobia will go through the roof. (It’s the Chinese fault, right!??!) Ah I thought it was a bat…See how this works? Intelligent people become idiots when fear and panic enter the picture.
Prejudice, stereotype, division. It will be unprecedented. The divided nations (conservative/liberal) will schism in ways that you don’t want to think about it. The real question is not how many people will die from the flu, because this happens predictably, every day around the world and has for millenia.
Maybe a million will die from the flu this year. Maybe a tiny fraction of those will be from our named virus. Maybe.
The real question is what happens this summer? But the panic, the fear, the hatred, the terror…