Your Questions Answered from Kevin Hogan, for May 2020.
Q. Dr. Hogan, my competitors are price dropping and we are losing business to them.
What do we do?
A. We talked about this last night in an international call. There are numerous approaches that all have validity. You can RAISE your prices, provide far greater value than you currently are.
You can consider the uniqueness of the situation at hand because it IS unique in history to have 80% of a world mostly staying home. This is a rare but fair rationale for discounting your consulting work but just for the near term experience.
In this case you would dramatically REDUCE your prices DURING the coronavirus “quarantine” and then 30 days after the world is set free, restore your price. If you do this it’s important to keep your price structure intact and contractually note that you are giving the price reduction from today until the end of the quarantine + 30 days.
One thing you don’t to do is what your competitor is doing. If you knock your price in half today without being certain that your clients are ready to do business with you at standard pricing and the virus goes another 90 days, you will lose that business.
Q. Kevin, I just finished your new online Success Course. Thank you! I want to join your Inner Circle but I heard you’ve closed it to current clients only. Will you reopen to new members soon?
A. The Success Algorithm is something special to be sure. Appreciate the comment. It’s very difficult to expand Inner Circle this month due to the work on the books. But I promise (gulp) we will reopen to new members in June.
Q. Kev, last night you said that people are being brainwashed as far as the coronavirus. Your explanation was scary. But I tried your thought experiment and I wasn’t able to come up with a reason why. What’s the answer?
A. I believe I said that you (and everyone else listening) were a victim of the same precise processes that are used in brainwashing. The most significant aspect was with respect to your being “asked to stay home” and actually “doing what you were told,” as you did when you were a child, listening to a parent.
The thought experiment was to calculate without getting wrapped up in the who and why it was happening and focus on HOW it is that you are staying home and you continue to stay home. What has caused you to believe that this is your fate? What steps have world governments taken to convince YOU as an INDIVIDUAL that you should do this even though the risk factors for the vast majority of the people are very small.
For those who weren’t on the call, we did note that two facts about this virus are that it does have a very real “fast and efficient carrier rate” and that it does target the very elderly and people with certain respiratory and physical pre-conditions. Meanwhile people younger than 50 can easily get CV19 but almost none (statistically) will ever know or even guess that they (have) had it.
The key here is that each week since the quarantine began, the population of the WORLD is reporting (being observed on Twitter as part of an ongoing 12 year project with Hedonometer) that ON AVERAGE they are HAPPIER TODAY (5/3/20) than they were immediately before the quarantine. That’s some very, very effective brainwashing.
Q. Kev, how can your country create 2 trillion dollars from nothing and not have inflation? How does this government behavior impact the price of gold and commodities?
A. Pretty cool trick, huh?
I gave a presentation in Boston more than a decade ago about, “Money is a Belief.” Some people in the audience doubted the concept. Today I remind you that money is a belief whether digitized or in currency form. Money will first be worth (in 2020) what governments want you to believe. But eventually cracks will enter the belief structures. Commodities in general will behave more in line with good old fashioned supply/demand and futures projections. About 10 days ago I bought oil at $7 per barrel. The rationale was that if oil were to seriously go and stay cheaper than that, the economy is for all intents and purposes dead and digitized money becomes all but worthless.
As far as gold (or Platinum, Palladium, Silver, Rhodium) they all have some intrinsic value to them. But they also have an element of belief in their “value in the moment.”
I suspect we’ll see gold rise more over the next 18 months. But gold is easy to manipulate by the banking system. After all they have the Fed to put as much money into keeping the price of gold (along with silver) suppressed. The logic of the moment un-manipulated, says, that gold should be at $3000 per ounce. But it’s not. So it’s again being manipulated as banks have admitted as recently as autumn 2019. When you have the power to print digital money at will, you truly have power for as long as people BELIEVE.
Q. Hey Kev, from the perspective of influence and human behavior, how do you feel about the possibility of a civil war? Is there a way to prevent or prepare for such a thing?
A. It’s a concern that is on my radar and has been for about 14 years. Each year I believe there is about a 1% chance of some kind of intranational “war” occurring in the U.S. though I now think those probabilities are higher and now closer to a 4% chance per year. I think in nations where citizens do not have the rights to own firearms, you’ll see similar possibilities with different dynamics.
I’m not “worried” per se, but I live in the northern U.S. in a relatively isolated homogenous community. I suspect other places on the map at various longitudes and latitudes will experience conflict …soon. A lot will depend on how the “quarantine” is dealt with. Fewer lives will be lost to CV19 in quarantine. Fewer lives will be lost in general in free societies like Sweden and now Denmark.
[Math: If that 4% number is accurate or “true” it also means that there is a 96% chance there will not be an intranational war in the U.S. in the next 12 months. After you’ve studied statistics you know that a 50% chance of something happening once in two separate periods, for example, flipping a coin twice and getting heads once is 1 – (.5 x .5) or a 75% chance.]
Q. Kevin, you didn’t finish your series on coronavirus. Will you be returning to that next week? Why did you stop?
A. I stopped because I talked with people close to the scientists advising the administration. I had assumed that this virus was basically the same as the flu or a bad cold. But that was a mistake on my part. It’s not. I asked to be convinced, and I am, that this virus, except by “accident,” doesn’t affect kids or young adults. We had an idea of this two months ago, but we didn’t know for sure. Now we do. But we also know that for the very elderly this is a very nasty designed flu and if the carriers deliver the message to people with diabetes or upper respiratory illnesses, it can expedite their mortality. I’ve turned my attention toward writing a piece of fiction born in the CV19 construct. We’ll see how this plays out…
Q. Dr. Hogan, when will you return to Poland to do another event? We were talking about having you here in Warsaw and would like you to consider headlining.
A. I’m planning on being in Poland this summer. But I am not up for an event this summer at this point. Perhaps October.
Q. Kev is there anything to the claim that the Chinese intentionally used CV19 to the U.S.? What do you make of the theory that Trump was involved to
divert attention away from a host of issues so he can win the election in November? How long do you think we’ll be quarantined?
A. I think most countries in the world will have no choice but to free the people soon. It depends on what criteria and values politicians will want. If they want re-election they will have no choice but to create paper and give it to people to stay home OR simply set them free ASAP. But what they can’t do is keep people imprisoned. Even though the population of the world ON AVERAGE is happier than immediately before the lockdown, there is a significant minority that burns with anger and disgust. CHINA: I have many fans and friends in China. I DON’T see a big difference between the people China and Australia and Bulgaria and Russia…and the good ole U.S. of A. But certain elements in governments are difficult to evaluate. As far as Trump? No, he didn’t plan this pandemic. It’s not his kind of thing. There is no doubt about that. As far as some specific element in China? (and I don’t mean the executive leadership) Sure it’s plausible. And no, I have no actual “thoughts” or “beliefs”….just “feelings” and I don’t usually talk about how I feel in public.
Q. Dr. Hogan, you mentioned on the webinar last week that you have a book coming out. When? Can I pre-order a copy?
A. There will be two this autumn. It’s normally terrible biz strategy to release books back to back but they are so important and so different from each other that we’ll put out press information pretty quick here. I’d like to wait until I know bookstores are going to be open. Man should not live by amazon alone…
Q. Kev, you were quoted in February as saying you “guesstimate” 500,000 would die from coronavirus. Over two months have past and 250,000 have died around the world, 70,000 in the U.S. What’s the latest prediction?
A. I said my median guess would be 500,000 in the U.S. but that isn’t likely to happen now. (If it does we will be in for a long term challenging situation.) Internationally there were 125,000 CV deaths reported around the world three weeks ago. The period of “doubling” as a way of considering velocity is now 20 days where it was 6 days just a month ago. So the spread continues but the speed of the transmission is slower. No one can know when the next doubling, which would put us at 500,000, worldwide will occur. Perhaps 40 days from now?
The reporting is also confounded because of the collateral issues. (Someone has COPD or pneumonia AND CV at the same time…it gets notched up as a CV death which is ridiculous. I reported here two months ago that my Mom died of Cancer AND Diabetes 22 years ago. Had she had just one or the other she might have lived another few years, but it would be inaccurate to say “this is a diabetes death.” Inaccurate and untrue.
There is a caveat to this creation. The “flu” eventually goes away and most people develop “immunity” or “resistance” to various flu bugs and of course you can be vaccinated to the seasonal stuff. All that aside, what i thought was “the flu” is not quite an actual flu, so I”m a bit skeptical as to whether it will actually “go away” or not. It FEELS like it will recur but a lot of this will be more clear by the end of the month and then in the fourth quarter of the year.