Kevin Hogan

International Speaker

Latest Articles:  Stopping the Black Swan Can You Become a New Person?

How Most People Make Bad Decisions…How You Can Be Different.
An Introduction to Great Decisions in Relationships, Business, and Life

Our life experience is largely a combination of our state of mind, communication, relationships, actions and our decisions. If someone is to achieve success in some area of life, certainly making well-considered decisions is critical. Learning how you make decisions and how others make their decisions will not only allow you to become a more influential person, it will help you grow yourself…with fewer regrets and more wins!

Is it time for a career change?
Which job should you take?
Should you marry this one?
Should you divorce this one?
Should you buy this car?
Should you buy that home?

Before you make that big decision you may want to read this article which will shed light on not only our decision making blind spots and errors…but also how to actually make great decisions.

Reams of research shows that in general:

  • People assume that when they decide on something and it turns out good that they made a good decision when it easily could have been attributed to chance (luck).
  • People tend to overemphasize the importance of pain by about 2.5:1 in decision making. (People may not need to feel great but they don’t want to hurt at all.)
  • People rationalize their emotional decisions instead of make rational decisions.
  • People make their decisions emotionally when the answer to a question or proposition isn’t obvious.
  • People make their decisions impulsively then stand by their impulse as if the decision was made rationally.
  • People make their decisions based upon their experience and not the experience of the masses.
  • People make decisions based upon the socio/environmental frames they put the decisions into. (a woman going to Planned Parenthood for counseling will get different advice than the woman going to her conservative pastor.)
  • People tend to make decisions on their own instead of seeking the counsel of numerous others who can give additional perspectives.
  • People are unaware of the enormous power of the actual words that are used to ask the question make an enormous difference in the actual decision that is made…
  • People are unaware as to how the influence specific questions changes their minds unconsciously. (Are you sick of driving that old junker? Vs. Are you thinking of buying a new car?)
  • People tend to avoid what they perceive as risky.
  • People tend to lack the skills to calculate the chances that events will or won’t happen.
  • People tend to decide on “the sure thing” even when it doesn’t make real sense to do so. They will take a sure $100 instead of a 50/50 chance at a $125 for example.)
  • People tend to make decisions without a solid understanding of “the real life likelihood of events.” (read that as mathematics, statistics and probability…sorry)

Not only do most of us make lots of bad decisions, we also tend to dramatically over-rate our decision making skills! We tend to remember our good decisions and think we’re actually good at decision making. But wait! It gets worse! We tend to over-estimate everything about ourselves from the income we earned last year to the grades we got in grade school. Here are just a couple of examples of how people perceive their judgment in the real world to be in contrast to how it really is.

96% of all men rate their physical appearance as average or better!
94% of all women rate their physical appearance as average or better!
What’s wrong with this picture?! (Obviously only 50% are average or better. 50% are below average.)

91% of all business leaders believe they are good or very good decision makers.
80% of businesses fail in the first 4 years.
90% of new products fail to make a profit.
What is wrong with this picture?!

Now, with these amazing facts behind us, it would seem that seeking expert advice from your broker, your agent, your attorney, your therapist, your Mom would be helpful…maybe…but don’t get to excited until you look at this:

Here’s an example of how we tend to over-rate expert advice:
About 15% of all stock mutual fund managers select stocks that ultimately do better than the S&P 500 Index Funds…often called, “The Market.” In other words, only 15% of experts…people paid MILLIONS of dollars per year to “beat the market” succeed at doing so. Think about that. Given reams of computer analysis, data and information, a full 85% of the world’s smartest professional investors cannot do better than the person who claims to know nothing about the market and simply invests in the 500 companies in the S&P 500!

Why are these experts so poor at deciding what stocks to buy?

  • Past performance is NOT always an indicator of future results…and the experts still believe that it is.
  • Most experts don’t consider the factors that really will influence the future.
  • They believe their own publicity clips.
  • (You’ll learn the biggest reasons in the next article!)

Almost every decision we make in business, relationships or life is a function of probability. That means that you don’t actually know the outcome of the decision. When you get in your car and drive to work you are deciding that people will drive carefully on their side of the road while you speed along at 55 mph on the other side of the road with two painted yellow lines dividing you. And indeed that is a decision that when you look at it this way is fairly risky but in reality the probability of disaster striking (someone running head on into you and killing you) is very slim. In this case, our day to day experience and our illusion of control (we’re driving so everything will be ok) confirm for us that while we see a lot of accidents, we know that most everyone is safe driving to and fro’. So we drive.

But the same set of factors can work the opposite way in making decisions.

Millions of people buy lottery tickets everyday. The lottery (like Powerball) is one of the worst “bets” on the planet. The odds are 55,000,000 to 1 that you will win…and, yes, someone eventually someone has to win…but let’s put those chances into perspective: If you have been struck by lightning 40 times or have died in 20 plane crashes then you might just be the person to win the lottery. The odds are the same as winning the jackpot in the Powerball game!!! The fact is that you aren’t going to win the lottery and neither am I. It is a terrible decision to buy a ticket. Just take your dollar bill or 10 dollar bill and burn it. Feel better? OUCH!

What about the “easier” lotto games? What about games where you only have to match 3 numbers to win $500 for your measly $1 investment? From 000 to 999 there are 1000 total numbers that can be drawn. Your odds of winning therefore are 1/1000. That means that on average for every $1000 you spend on the lotto you will get returned $500. You should get $1,000 for a winner but the government/lottery sponsor is giving you $500. I don’t know how much you earn, but a lot of people only make $500 per week and it’s worth considering that the government which regulates the lottery is really extracting a “stupid tax” from those foolish enough to decide to play. Now, could you pick the winner tonight in a 1/1000 event and win the $500? Sure you could. Lots of people will. And, it’s still a foolish decision to buy the ticket just because it COULD happen.

So how do you make a good decision?

There are lots of factors involved. Dozens actually. Let’s look at one simple factor and key to making good decisions.

KEY: What is the chance of something happening vs. the payoff? If the payoff is worth more than the risk, then the decision is a good decision even if you are wrong. If the payoff is worth less than the risk, the decision is a bad decision, even if you are wrong.

Example: One year I won a nice sum of money on the Super Bowl. I have a modeling tool for picking football games. Some years the model does better than others. My model said that New England would beat St. Louis about 1/3 of the time in this specific game. The casino was offering about $450 for each $100 bet if New England did indeed win. It was very difficult to put…money on New England (because they should lose 2/3 of the time in this game) but clearly because they should win 1/3 of the time (assuming the model is right) and the sportsbook was willing to pay off more than double those odds, I had no choice but to bet it all on New England. I did. In other words, according to my model, the sportsbook should payoff only $200 in addition to getting my $100 back, but they were offering $450! I had to make the wager. I did. They won. It was good.

Now, New England could have lost and it STILL would have been a good bet because the sportsbook was going to pay me over twice as much on a win as they should have. It’s no fun when your decision turns out wrong…but you can learn to make the best decisions possible…and we’ll talk much more about just that as this series goes on!

It’s sometimes difficult to calculate the probability of life events.

“If I buy the palm pilot will I REALLY use it?”
“Will I be happier if I divorce her?”
“Will I be happier if I go out with her instead of her?”
“If I quit the job will I find a better one?”
“If I take the job will I be happy there?”
“If you marry Bill/Bonnie, will they be a good spouse?”
“If I have children, will they be born with a major defect handicapping them for life?”

These are more difficult to determine what the right decisions are, because they include numerous variables that need to be weighted and all possible options explored before such decisions are actually finalized. (Once a decision is actually made, most humans are unable to change their mind because they will appear to be wrong in their own mind, to their peer group or society in general. See the Law of Consistency in Psychology of Persuasion.)

Understanding the power of influence and the ways in which our persuasion skills can influence others in business, career, and personal relationships will certainly help you achieve the goal of making better decisions in every area of life.

Have Kevin Hogan as your own personal mentor!

Decision Point–Learning to Make the Right Decisions that Will Finally Lead You to Your Destiny

Go Directly to Application Form

Next course date: See Application Form

If you’ve ever taken one of my e-courses, yes, it’s like them! This E-course lasts 7 weeks and has more than 20 modules. You set your own schedule – you don’t have to be “in class” at any particular time each day. You get VIP access to a secret portion of the web site, and can log in at any time.

You’ve been thinking of getting a divorce but your husband does bring in a decent income. There are other fish in the sea but you wonder if you can still compete. Can you do better? What about the kids? What do you DECIDE? How do you decide?

Moving is always tough but when there are more than one person’s job or one person going to a school that they love and the possibility of leaving friends behind makes for what many consider an impossible decision. What do YOU decide? How do you decide?

Your investments have done OK but your total income saved for your future is terrible. There are a lot of options you’ve been told about but you really don’t know what to do. What will you decide? How will you decide?

A relative lives with you. They take advantage of you but you can’t let them go because you don’t know what will happen to them. What is the right thing to do and will that thing be what you decide? How will you decide?

An elderly relative lives with you. They can’t take care of themselves any more. You hate the idea of a nursing home or “worse.” You also want “a life.” What will you decide to do?

You are a manager at your company and only have enough budget to pursue one product line. You can choose between an almost sure thing with a very modest return or a riskier proposal that could make you a superstar. What do you decide? How do you make the decision?

You’re on your way home for the holidays. You get stuck in bad weather and are put up at a local hotel. In the bar that night a beautiful woman strikes up a conversation with you and she has offered you the key to her room. What will you decide?

Your wife is two months pregnant. A test reveals the baby is going to be born with a disease that will require your 24/7 care for the rest of your life. She decides she wants to keep the baby. But you haven’t made your decision. What will you decide to do? How will you make the decision?

Your home has a horrible defect that you can cover easily in the selling process and the defect almost certainly won’t be discovered for years. Revealing it will reduce the price of your home $100,000. What will you decide to do? How will you decide?

You can stay at your present job which you really don’t like that much and live on a predictable but very modest income or you can pursue a venture that has about a 70% chance of success and if it succeeds, you would double your income. What do you decide to do? How do you decide?

You are involved in a custody battle for your children. One of the kids is misbehaving terribly and you don’t know whether you should spank them or discipline them firmly. The result could easily effect the results of the custody hearing. What do you do? How do you decide?

Two women have taken a liking to you. You date them both for some time. They both begin to talk about moving in and a permanent relationship. One is the kind of person you feel comfortable with and would be easy to love. The other is 10 years younger and is celebrity beautiful. Unfortunately she knows it and enjoys being the center of attention. What do you decide? How do you decide?

And those are just a few of the decisions that face real people every day. Decisions that people are forced into and have no idea what to do or how to do it.

THIS COURSE shows you how to make ALL of the decisions above.

And it’s important to note, that the right decision easily can be different from person to person. Knowing how to evaluate THAT is crucial to everything you will do…but no one ever does it….

If you haven’t taken an e-course with me:  an E-course with me is not like an E-course as thought of by the rest of the world. With me an E-course means you will have instruction in several media forms. Video, audio and text. There is NO specific time you must meet with me every day.

About 50% of the people who take my courses collect all the materials and work at their own pace later. The other half work with me and sometimes with other participants when necessary, on projects that are necessary to learning how to make RIGHT DECISIONS.

My courses are universally known to be challenging, results-oriented, pragmatic and show you EXACTLY how to get where you want to go.

Decision making is a function of thinking that almost 90% of people do very poorly. Most people think that if something turns out well, they made a good decision. If something turns out poorly they made a bad decision.

And that conditioning is one of the biggest reasons why people are poor decision makers.

Decision making is first and foremost about MAKING DECISIONS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Every day, people vacillate on making changes in their lives that they KNOW are absolutely necessary, but they decide to do nothing and hope for the best, only to live a life where nothing ever changes.

This is where we begin.


You will learn how to recognize situations where you are about to commit acts of self-sabotage. I’ll show you how to identify it long before it becomes an issue. I’ll show you how to crush self-sabotage so you can make a CHOICE instead of only having the ability to stay with the Status Quo.

This first week’s module alone will be worth the investment in the course.

How would you like to NEVER procrastinate again?

What would happen if you could actually MOVE in the DIRECTION that you want to, even if it is ONLY AWAY FROM WHERE YOU ARE TODAY?!

By the end of week one, you will have daily projects to do for several weeks that will almost literally beat the habits of self-sabotage and procrastination from your life.

Most people don’t know that procrastination is a habit you picked up, but it is NOT your fault.

The same is true of self-sabotage.

I will explain why, where it all started, why it happens to everyone and why it must be eradicated intentionally and with no little effort. By the END of the course, IF YOU FOLLOW the Decision Point Plan, you will have eliminated procrastination and almost all forms of self-sabotage.

I’ll explain in detail why self-sabotage is a little trickier and lurks in EVERYONE’S back yard waiting to strike. I’ll show you how to get rid of it and then prevent it so you never have to deal with it in the future.

And that is only week one!

How we doin’ so far?!

Decision IS Destiny

If you could point to one word, to one factor, to one element or cause of what happens to you in your life, it is decision.

You make decisions all the time. Generally speaking, the more decisions a person makes, the more successful they are.

The better a person is at making decisions, the more successful they are.

When you move from your old home to the home you are in now; maybe you moved because you wanted a bigger house, or to put the kids in a better school district. Maybe it was just closer to where your job is…more convenient.

And of course in the case of uprooting and moving your family, you’re talking about a lot of variables, a lot of things to consider. You’re going to find out how to make the right decision in which house to buy and where to move.

What about leaving your job for some other opportunity?

FEAR enters the picture quite clearly and because the future is seemingly unpredictable, you feel frozen or stuck as to what to do, so you immediately default to stay in your same job. But there is a way to make this decision much easier. And you’ll be pleasantly surprised when you do….

But there are also the smaller decisions of life.

  • Which movie to go see…
  • Which show to watch on TV….
  • What to make for dinner…
  • Whether to go to the game or stay home….
  • Whether to take a vacation with or without the kids…
  • Whether to wear blue or black…

There is a simple method that takes little thinking at all to make these day to day decisions.

And then there are decisions that you make that influence other people’s lives like taking a new job, going into business for yourself, moving to a new area, having a surgery that has risks involved….

How do you know what to do? Don’t worry, most people haven’t got a clue as to how to make the right decision every time, and there is a right decision to make.

Then there are Destiny Decisions…those decisions that you make that will literally determine where you are going to be in three years or five years.

These are REALLY IMPORTANT decisions. Every day I see people screwing them up as if they are no big deal.

You’ll find out a methodical system that might take a very short amount of time or significantly longer depending on circumstances. Nevertheless, you will find out exactly what to do every time.

Obviously there are plenty of Black Swan’s (unexpected random events like hurricanes and terrorism) out there to get in the way of what you want in life, but nothing you can control impacts your life more than decision.

Write that down.
Put it on the refrigerator.
That alone is worth $10,000, yes?

Nothing you can control impacts your life more than decision.

How would life be different if you knew you were going to make the right decision, every time?

(Every time?!)

Did you know that in life, there is almost always a best decision?

What would happen if you had the method for decision?

What would it be worth to have a simple systematic approach to decision making where the guidelines are from your head and heart?

Most people are paralyzed with uncertainty about whether they should:

  • Ask the girl to marry them.
  • Make a purchase.
  • Move from one place to another…
  • Quit their job…
  • Decide between committing one person or another.
  • Start a business…
  • Ask the girl to go out with them…
  • Send the letter or not…
  • Decide between hiring one person or another.
  • Get a divorce….
  • Send your kids to public or private school….
  • Choose between a new car, a used car or no car….
  • Go back to school to get more education….
  • Fire the person or not.
  • Invest in stocks, bonds, real estate and not screw up.
  • Accurately plan for their future in all areas.

Why Do People Make Bad Decisions?

And…they make bad decisions because…we all have about 8-10 areas of failure in our brain….similar experiences where you make the wrong decisions over and over again.

(Like marrying the same guy five times, dating jerks, working for idiots, saying the wrong thing at the worst time, etc. Sound familiar?)

We’ll repair all of that. (If we don’t, life will be the same tomorrow as it has been in the past….)

Did you know there is a proven way to make the right decision in each of the above choices?


For the sake of discussion, let’s assume that is correct. There IS a method you can use to make the RIGHT decision just about every time.

It doesn’t take a genius to think, “I decide to make more money,” “lose weight,” “get a better job,” “get married to perfect person x”.

KEYLearning the process of making the right decision involves making that decision STICK, be UNYIELDING and barring a Black Swan, guaranteeing you will follow through.

Over the last 15 years we’ve been fortunate to have studied the raw information about how to make laser beam accurate decisions. Complex software programs have shown scientists how to simplify the decision making process using some mostly simple (sorry, it’s not ALL instantly easy!) rules.

And now, you don’t need the software or the computer any more…

And, by the way, in the last 15 years there has been an incredible amount of research done about decision making that teach and use VERY FAULTY processes, that can’t and don’t work.

KEYYou’ll experience FIRST HAND, how what seems to be an obvious decision, is almost always the wrong one….the costly one…(often the disaster one….)

If you follow that teacher’s advice, you’ll flat out screw up.

You’ll end up with next to nothing and headaches and heartaches to boot.


People, including a lot of authors, are lazy.

They don’t do the research.
They don’t test.
Why should they?

They get paid the same no matter what and when YOU screw up, they just say, “you did it wrong.”

Play along for just a moment.

Can I ask you a question?

Have you ever read that it’s been proven that 93% of all communication is body language?

Of course, lots of times. Everyone has read that.

And of course, it’s not true.

(It’s not even close to accurate.)

How could that be, it’s common knowledge…isn’t it?

There was one study done by a brilliant communication researcher 35 years ago that evaluated people saying one word to another, with the other person only being able to see the person from the neck UP. (that leaves about 90% of the body out of the study.) In this one specific instance, Dr. Mehrabian found that about 93% of the communication sent was at a nonverbal level. Obviously when people communicate with more than one word and people can see below the neck, all kinds of factors change the percentages.

Problem is people read something in a book written by Goofball X and they believe what she writes because she says it’s “scientific.”

People look at their lives and think, “I did everything I was told…”

Yep and look at that life. It didn’t work.

The guru didn’t do the research. They went with the party line and taught that.

I don’t care about the party line because I don’t like the people at the party.

Remember when Benjamin Franklin did his famous experiment about testing each of the virtues (temperance and so forth) for a month so he could eventually become adept at all of them? I’ve heard most motivational speakers talk or write about this. I’d name them, but it would take an entire page…

Anyway…You remember… but he gave up the idea after the first week …he never did the experiment. He wrote early in his biography that he was going to do the project and then soon after decided not to. Basically he said it was impossible to do such a thing.

I’ve never heard ANYONE get that right, either.


And because you trust them YOU TRY IT and FAIL.

Franklin’s personal challenge didn’t work for all kinds of reasons I’ll show you later.

Question: Why did you believe he actually did the project?

Only one reason: …because someone you trusted or believed, an author, a teacher….told you that it was true.

Want a quick way to filter a crummy guru out?

If they tell you that story, they didn’t get very far in Franklin’s biography. If they tell you that, they’d tell you anything.

By the way…what did Franklin do instead?!

I’ll show you that at Decision Point, too.

The point is that MOST of the stuff people tell you to do…. that is “scientific,” that is based on laws of the universe or proven techniques is nothing more than their imagination having run wild.

…and following their advice will get you the same ultimate destination, every time…

Back to Start. (If you don’t go into foreclosure first.)

So why don’t the vast majority of people make good decisions?

Why are people AFRAID to make decisions at all?

They’ve been given crummy information and worse methods for how to choose and what to do.

It’s that simple.

(OK, there are eight other core reasons people make crummy decisions every day, but to pick on your neighbor here is so not cool…)

And what does the Power of Decision Point give you in life?

  • Choice
  • Personal freedom
  • No limits
  • The Ability to Succeed When Most Others Fail
  • The Ability to Make Big Changes in Life with Ease
  • and…
  • Wealth if You Want It
  • A LOT Better Life If You USE The Power of Decision
  • Success when you use The Power of Decision.

You’re going to learn it ALL in this 7 Week E-Course.

If you’ve been in an E-Course with me, you know that although they are always convenient, they are also densely packed with practical, real life application as the end result. That is the same here. Everything you learn will be immediately applied to a crucial part of your life because there is a LOT going on in your life right now and a LOT of it has to change but you don’t know WHAT.

Each week you’ll receive a number of emails or documents from me. You’ll have homework assignments that are all real-life based…your life. You’ll be given audio’s to listen to or video to watch. You will once again, find out what “over delivery” means!

You’re going to discover:

  • How People Decide
  • Why Most People Make Almost All Bad Decisions
  • How to KNOW What to do…
  • The Four Factors of Luck and How to Tilt the “Luck Factor” in YOUR Favor.
  • How to Beat the Black Swan when Bad Luck Strikes….
  • All of the Successful Strategies for Decision Including Decision Point: MY PERSONAL SYSTEM
Do you sell something for a living?

[Pay attention- I’m going to show you how to analyze how your client WILL DECIDE on buying your product or service…and I’ll show you WHAT is going to happen next…think that might be worth $10,000?!]

I’ve never given the system for DECISION POINT to anyone.

I’m not going to write about it in Coffee….ever.

But the time is now to experience a truly transformational experience in an exciting and unique E-course.


No one else is going to ever show you this information. You’ll never experience these experiences with anyone else. You can’t find anything remotely similar “out there.”

So essentially, you’re stuck spending seven weeks with me. As with all of my E-Courses, I am your PERSONAL COACH and you don’t have to be at any specific place at any specific time. The program is delivered via audio, video, and text.

So what’s going to happen in these seven fascinating weeks?

I’ll personally show you the problems you face when you make decisions.

You’ll find out the impact of other people on your decision.

I’ll show you how to minimize the NEGATIVE impact of other people on your decisions, including the people you might love or work with every day.

You won’t regret your decisions anymore.

You’ll understand how to MINIMIZE RISK and MAXIMIZE RETURN on both business and personal decisions.

I’ll show you EXACTLY what to do when the RIGHT decision you determine, FEELS completely wrong.

Finding out how your beliefs, faith, values and lifestyle factor into your decisions matters a lot to you. No one else shows you how to be true to yourself and others around you while you decide for your Self or for many.

Almost forgot…

At the end of the course, you will have one cool, big Coffee Table-Sized Manual that you will be able to refer to forever.

Almost all of my E Courses are $10,000.

However, this is one of the first times I’ve offered Decision Point and so you can be considered as part of the Beta group. That means that I, too, will learn a few things in this course. I’m going to find out what the easiest ways to explain the decision processes of successful people. So your tuition is NOT $10,000… See Application Form for tuition rates and discounts that apply now! So as to not dent the bank account, you can also do monthly payments over the next 6 months that make this very affordable.

Decision Point Application Form

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