Kevin Hogan

If you have a question for Kevin that fall in the realm of his expertise, send it along. If your question is printed you will be in a drawing held at the end of each month for a gift certificate for https://kevinhogan.comstore Enjoy and good luck!

Hey Kev, How come relationship advice almost always fails, regardless of who gives it?

You need pre-existing conditions to confirm that relationship advice is likely to be helpful. 1) Intention of both parties wanting the same outcomes. 2) Both parties agreement on solution strategies.

If those conditions exist you have a solid bet. If you they don’t you’re trying to fix a two person relationship (which remember is really a relationship between two people with BIG ROLODEXES in their mind. It doesn’t mean a good advisor can’t be incredibly helpful, but obviously it reduces the probability that intervention by one side only will be less likely to repair what might be broken.

Dear Kevin, Could you explain what are emotional words (if they exist)?.
Thank you. G.G.

You didn’t mention the context of your question, so I can share a few thoughts and will happily revisit a more specific question. Words carry charge or energy. But not the kind that one might think. The same words spoken in English mean nothing at any level to someone who has never heard the language. That is the first level here. So “emotional words” is not just a phrase but one that covers different discussions in different fields. My interest in in influence. Here I can tell you that there is massive amounts of research being done to “teach” AI to use not just emotional words but all kinds of categories of words (for example, words that represent the big five personality traits). These words are all being tested and AI all over the country is learning the different potency of words, many of which are emotional.

Meanwhile you and I want to also know that different words trigger different deep seated memories in different people. I can think of words that just make me ill when I hear them. There are songs I won’t listen to. Similarly there are words that all by themselves make people feel better or worse in different directions. Many of these are emotional words.

When I write copy, which I still love to do, I select words that are emotionally considered when I write. The goal here is to trigger the most useful response in the lion share of the readers. Obviously no one word will trigger the same response in everyone, even in the same language.

Now, that I have mentioned a few different areas where “emotional words” are being studied, feel free to follow up.

Kev, Everyone knows you are a big long time Chicago Cubs fan. We all know you want the Cubs to win the World Series. But as a superforecaster what do you think will really happen? G. S.

I’m writing this on Saturday before the end of the regular season. If the Cubs win the division, which we will know Sunday evening when Coffee comes out then, a rough estimate would give the Astros or Red Sox about a 50% chance (combined) of winning the World Series and the Cubs about 10% or so. However if they simply get in on the Wild Card tat would reduce there chances to 1/25. So… sure I’m pleased they are in the playoffs but winning the World Series is much more likely to happen by an A.L. team this year. I will “root, root, root for the Cubbies, for if they don’t win it’s ashame…!”

Dr. Hogan, Last month you predicted that on December 31 the market would be at 31,000 but I know you told me (in a personal conversation) that putting money in stocks right now is a very high risk proposition. Can you reconcile the two?

It’s the best guess, the median result out of about 10,000 possibilities!  The market can easily move up through 33,000 by mid 2019 and it could just as easily be at 12,000 at the same time, starting from today. The downside is much greater by far, but if you have to put one single number, looking at sentiment and bond rates, 31,000 is about the best guess a guy can make.  P.S. Don’t be greedy, you’ve had a GREAT run. Take it off the table and count it…